Description
About the Author M. A. K. Khalil is Professor of Physics at Portland State University, USA. He holds BA degrees in Mathematics and Psychology and a Bachelor of Physics degree from the University of Minnesota; MS in Physics from Virginia Polytechnic Institute; PhD in Theoretical Physics from the Center For Particle Theory, University of Texas, and a PhD in Environmental Science and Engineering from OGC, now Oregon Health and Sciences University. He has published more than 200 papers in the environmental sciences and theoretical physics, and was named one of the world’s most highly cited authors by ISI. Preface ix About the Companion Website xi 1 Introduction 1 1.1 What Is Global Change Science? 1 1.2 Current Global Change 2 1.3 Raising Fundamental Questions 2 Endnotes 3 2 The Framework 5 2.1 The System 5 2.2 Scales of Action 5 2.3 What Determines Climate? 8 2.4 The Benchmark Average Climate 12 2.5 Irreducible Uncertainties 15 2.6 The Plan 16 Review of the Main Points 18 3 Atmospheric Composition 19 3.1 Trace Gases and Their Roles in Climate and the Environment 19 3.2 Quantifying the Atmospheric Composition 22 Review of the Main Points 27 Endnotes 29 4 Mass Balance Theory and Small Models 33 4.1 The Components 33 4.2 Global 35 4.3 Hemispherical and Horizontal 40 4.4 Vertical 43 Review of the Main Points 46 Endnotes 48 5 Transport Processes 51 5.1 Vertical Transport and Convection 51 5.2 Horizontal Motion and the General Circulation 56 5.3 Turbulent Transport 61 5.4 Quantifying Transport Processes 66 Review of the Main Points 69 Endnotes 70 6 Mechanisms of Sources and Sinks 73 6.1 Reservoirs and Source-Sink Relationships 74 6.2 Atmospheric Chemistry 77 6.3 Global Environmental Applications 82 6.4 Cross-Media Transport: Oceans, Soils, and Biota 90 Review of the Main Points 100 Endnotes 102 7 Balance of Climate Gases and Aerosols 107 7.1 Anthropogenic vs Natural Components 107 7.2 Greenhouse Gases 110 7.3 Aerosols 123 Review of the Main Points 126 Endnotes 127 8 The Science of Climate 131 8.1 Solar Radiation 131 8.2 Albedo 135 8.3 Radiative Transfer 137 8.4 Heat Storage and Balance 150 8.5 Precipitation 152 Review of the Main Points 154 Endnotes 156 9 Instructive Climate Models 159 9.1 Base Temperature Model – Lessons, Flaws, and Resolution 159 9.2 Radiative Forcing and Climate Sensitivity 166 9.3 Practical Relationships between Greenhouse Gases and Surface Warming 168 9.4 Role of the Oceans 171 9.5 Role of Clouds 174 9.6 Horizontal Transport of Heat 175 Review of the Main Points 178 Endnotes 180 10 Climate Feedbacks 183 10.1 How They Work 183 10.2 Feedbacks Classified and Delineated 188 10.3 Physical Feedbacks 189 10.4 Role of the Living World 192 Review of the Main Points 197 Endnotes 199 11 Match of Climate Change Observed and Modeled 201 11.1 What Is Global Warming? 201 11.2 Causes of Observed Warming 204 11.3 Differential Effects of Climate Change 207 Review of the Main Points 210 Endnotes 210 12 Population, Affluence, and Global Change 213 12.1 Basic Relationships 213 12.2 Societal Factors in Climate Change 215 12.3 Population Growth and Resources 218 12.4 Vulnerability Theory 222 Review of the Main Points 225 Endnotes 226 13 Impacts of Climate Change on Human Life 229 13.1 Impacts Classified 229 13.2 Health 230 13.3 Habitability 234 Review of the Main Points 239 Endnotes 240 14 Climate Management 243 14.1 Tragedy of the Commons 243 14.2 Compounding Forces of Resistance 248 14.3 Mechanisms for Managing the Climate 249 14.4 Geo-engineering 251 14.5 Trading Gases: The Global Warming Potential 253 Review of the Main Points 255 Endnotes 256 15 Possible Futures 257 15.1 Projections 257 15.2 The Metaphysics of Climate Change 259 Endnote 261 List of Symbols Used 263 Index 267
